how to lose weight fast without exercising

If you put your muscles through actions that make them stronger and more tone then they will respond. Meaning if you are sitting the majority of your time or you are not taxing your muscles to help them grow then they will stay in the state that they are in. So you can lose bodyfat without achieving a toned look if you remain sedentary. That is why exercise is so important

have two or three snacks in between meals. There is no measuring portion sizes or counting calories with the plan.Your meals are normal size , enough to satisfy your hunger.
Phase one is the strictest part of the diet. After phase one you should notice a weight loss of some 8 to 12 pounds from where you started.
After initial two weeks on the program those cravings for the sugars and bad carbs will be gone and by just modifying what you eat you will continue to lose weight.
Upon entering phase two of the diet you can start

First of you must know that you did gain all of those weight because of the foods you eat. Not only that but how and when you eat your food. The first thing that you need to do is overhaul your meal plans. Create a meal plan of your own if you don't have one. You must eliminate all of the unhealthy foods that you eat, especially foods that are rich on fats and oil. Include fruits and vegetables in your meals. These are very rich in vitamins and minerals that the body needs. It is also a great source of fiber. Most important of all that you don't ever skip a meal. When you miss a meal your body goes to what they call a "starvation mode". When the body experience hunger, it will make you rebound or eat more in your next meal then instead of using the food as energy it will store the food turning it into fats. Keep your stomach guessing on when is the next meal by eating more often during the day. That doesn't mean you have to eat more. What I'm trying to say is that you should have at least 2 or 3 small snacks besides your 3 regular meals.

Nothing works on How to Lose Weight Fast more than doing a regular exercise. Most people expect that you have to go to the gym when you do some exercise. There are many ways that you could do some exercise without spending money how to lose weight fast by going into a gym. If you have a treadmill at home you could use it and start running for at least 30minutes a day. If you don't have a treadmill then you could run on the park. It is more effective if you could have your exercise before eating your breakfast. Weight lifting could not only make your muscles work but is a great way to increase your metabolism rate.

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foreclosure sales

Actually, given the utter failure to replace the destroyed jobs over the last two years in this economy, the bigger surprise may have been that the numbers were dropping — until now.  Bloomberg reports that the percentage of home mortgages with one or more overdue payments rose in the second quarter, the first such increase in more than a year.  It might reflect the decline of the economy in the prelude to “Recovery Summer,” but it’s probably more useful as a signal of another wave of foreclosures:

The percentage of U.S. mortgages with one overdue payment rose in the second quarter, the first gain in early delinquencies in more than a year, as economic growth slowed and jobless claims rose.

Home loans overdue by a month rose to 3.51 percent, from 3.45 percent in the first quarter, according to a report today from the Washington-based Mortgage Bankers Association.

The gain suggests a slowing economy may increase foreclosures as mortgage holders lose their jobs, said Jay Brinkmann, chief economist of the group. New unemployment claims, measured as a monthly average, rose throughout the second quarter after falling in most of the prior period, according to data from the Labor Department in Washington.

“As we work through the bucket of troubled loans, we’re seeing an increase in a new crop of troubled loans,” Brinkmann said in an interview. “It’s primarily driven by the jobs market. It still takes a paycheck to make a mortgage payment.”

It’s an incremental increase, mainly significant for its direction and not its magnitude.  Absent other indicators, it would probably not mean much at all.  Furthermore, we don’t necessarily have enough context to know where a panic level is; it’s possible that this indicator fell far enough that a small rebound was inevitable, as foreclosures weeded out the failing borrowers and the averages returned to normal.

In fact, the news is a little more mixed — but still not good — when looking at the full summary from MBA:

“These latest delinquency numbers contain a mixture of somewhat good news and somewhat bad news.  The good news is that foreclosure starts are down and the inventory of homes anywhere in the process of foreclosure fell for the first time since 2006 and had the largest drop since 2005.  Loans 90 days or more past due, the largest share of delinquent loans, also fell.  The fact that both the 90+ delinquency rate fell and the foreclosure start rate fell means that a significant number of these seriously delinquent loans have been successfully modified and reclassified as performing, current loans,” said Jay Brinkmann, MBA’s chief economist.

“The disappointing news is that, after declining since the beginning of 2009, the rate of short-term delinquencies is going up and the increase in these short-term delinquencies may ultimately drive the foreclosure measures back up. The percent of loans one payment behind had peaked in the first quarter of 2009 at 3.77 percent and fell to 3.31 percent by the end of 2009.   Unfortunately that rate has now risen to 3.51 percent.  The causes are likely two-fold.  First, 30-day delinquencies are very closely tied to first-time claims for unemployment insurance.  The number of first-time claims fell through most of 2009 but leveled off in 2010 and have started to rise again.  This increase in unemployment directly impacts mortgage delinquencies.  Second, some percentage of the loans modified over the last several years have become delinquent again because those borrowers, by definition, have weak credit.

“Ultimately the housing story, whether it is delinquencies, homes sales or housing starts, is an employment story.  Only when we see a consistent increase in employment will we see an increase in sales and starts, and a sustained improvement in the delinquency numbers.  Until we see the increase in the number of households that comes with an increase in the number of paychecks, all measures of the health of the housing industry will continue to be weak,” Brinkmann said.

In other words, the collection of indicators gives this particular increase a little more weight.  While some of the longer-term delinquencies fade away, we are seeing a new wave of potential trouble if jobs don’t start opening up for the unemployed, and soon.  Note too that Brinkmann points out the failure of existing foreclosure-avoidance government programs because they have been treating the symptom while ignoring or deepening the disease.

We’re stuck in a cycle of futility, where government interventions create debt and uncertainties that dissuade investors from starting and expanding businesses, and the government thinks that more intervention will solve the trouble.  The results of Wreckovery Summer are demonstrating just how badly we have blundered in the wrong direction.

It was a busy week ...

Existing Home Sales lowest since 1996, 12.5 months of supply

The NAR reported:

Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dropped 27.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million units in July from a downwardly revised 5.26 million in June, and are 25.5 percent below the 5.14 million-unit level in July 2009.
...
Total housing inventory at the end of July increased 2.5 percent to 3.98 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 12.5-month supply at the current sales pace, up from an 8.9-month supply in June.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in July 2010 (3.83 million SAAR) were 27.2% lower than last month, and were 25.5% lower than July 2009 (5.14 million SAAR).

The next graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Inventory is not seasonally adjusted, so it really helps to look at the YoY change.

Although inventory increased from June 2010 to July 2010, inventory decreased 1.9% YoY in July. The slight year-over-year decline is probably because some sellers put their homes on the market in the Spring hoping to take advantage of the home buyer tax credit.

Note: Usually July is the peak month for inventory.

A normal housing market usually has under 6 months of supply. The following graph shows the relationship between supply and house prices (using Case-Shiller).

This graph show months of supply (through July 2010) and the annualized change in the Case-Shiller Composite 20 house price index (through May 2010).

Below 6 months of supply (blue line) house prices are typically rising (black line).

Above 6 or 7 months of supply, house prices are usually falling. This isn't perfect - it is just a guideline. This is a key reason why I expect house prices to fall further later this year as measured by the Case-Shiller and CoreLogic repeat sales house price indexes.

New Home Sales decline to Record Low in July

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 276 thousand. This is an decrease from the record low of 315 thousand in June (revised down from 330 thousand).

This graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions for the last 47 years.

And another long term graph - this one for New Home Months of Supply.

Months of supply increased to 9.1 in July from 8.0 in June. The all time record was 12.4 months of supply in January 2009. This is still very high (less than 6 months supply is normal).

The 276 thousand annual sales rate for July is the all time record low (May was revised up a little). This was another very weak report. New home sales are important for the economy and jobs - and this indicates that residential investment will be a sharp drag on GDP in Q3.

MBA Q2 2010: 14.42% of Mortgage Loans Delinquent or in Foreclosure

Here is my post on the MBA Q2 delinquency report: 14.42% of Mortgage Loans Delinquent or in Foreclosure . This graph (from the earlier post) shows the delinquency rate by "bucket" (30 days, 60 days, 90+ days, and in foreclosure process):

The total percent of loans delinquent or in the foreclosure process declined only slightly in Q2 from Q1 - and the rate is the second highest on record.

Loans 30 days delinquent increased to 3.51%, and this is about the same levels as in Q4 2008 (slightly below the peak of 3.77% in Q1 2009).

Delinquent loans decreased in all other buckets - especially in the 90+ day bucket. MBA Chief Economist Jay Brinkmann suggested the decline in the 90+ day bucket was because of some successful modifications - since the lenders reported the loans as delinquent until the modification was made permanent.

The second graph shows the delinquency rate by state (red is seriously delinquent: 90+ days or in foreclosure, blue is delinquent less than 90 days).

Clearly Florida and Nevada have a large percentage of loans delinquent or in foreclosure. But the delinquency problem is widespread with 36 states and D.C. all having total delinquency rates above 10%.

With house prices falling - and growth slowing - the delinquency rate will probably increase later this year.

CoreLogic: 11 Million U.S. Properties with Negative Equity in Q2

Here is my post CoreLogic: 11 Million U.S. Properties with Negative Equity in Q2

This graph shows the negative equity and near negative equity by state.

Although Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Michigan and California, have the largest percentage of homeowners underwater, there is a negative equity problem in most states. In 33 states and the D.C., 10 percent or more of homeowners with mortgages have negative equity.

Other Economic Stories ...

From Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke: The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy

BEA: Q2 real GDP revised down to 1.6% annualized growth rate

Estimate of Decennial Census impact on August payroll employment: minus 116,000

From Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ on the debate at the August FOMC meeting: Fed Split on Move to Bolster Sluggish Economy

From the Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Growth Continued to Ease in August; Expectations Drifted Lower

Kansas City Fed: Manufacturing activity slowed in August

From MarketWatch: S&P downgrades Ireland on financial sector cost

The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported that vehicle miles driven in June were up 1.3% compared to June 2009.

ATA: "Truck freight tonnage has essentially gone sideways since April 2010"

Unofficial Problem Bank List increases to 840 institutions

Best wishes to all.

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Now that Wesabe is officially closed, many users are looking for an alternative that offers the same flexibility and features -- for many this alternative is, or should be MoneyStrands.



MoneyStrands is a free tool that has helped people manage their money online since it launched in March 2009 -- and in short order has won a Webby award for the best of the web in the banking and bill-pay category. This honor is no surprise when you consider that MoneyStrands offers features you won't find in many competing tools such as Mint.



Like all modern personal finance tools, MoneyStrands can connect to a large number of banking and financial institutions, but unlike most competitors gives users the ability to manually upload their account data. This option is a must-have for those who don't want to give their login info to a third party, or who bank at a smaller bank or credit union that personal finance tools cannot connect to for automatic updates.



MoneyStrands also sets itself apart from the competition because it is designed to make it easy for international and non-English speaking users to use the tool. The MoneyStrands website can be viewed in both English and Spanish with a toggle in the settings and users can choose their preferred currency from a long list. According to MoneyStrands, consumers use the service in 44 countries.



These features supplement the standard account linking and money management that the MoneyStrands tool handles well. Users can view spending and account history in one location as well as compare spending in categories such as shopping, food & dining and more to see how they stack up to the rest of the community. Filters allow you to compare yourself to other members based on age, gender, marital status, education and other variables.



MoneyStrands also has a budgeting tool that tracks spending and sets email alerts when a budget category reaches a certain level so spending can be put in check. The tool is fairly simple and requires users to figure out their own goals, but Atakan Cetinsoy, General Manager of MoneyStrands told WalletPop in a phone interview that an improved budgeting tool that walks users through the process is coming in the next few months.



MoneyStrands is easy to use and offers significant value to users; especially those who can't or don't want to link their accounts directly to a third-party service.

As investors search for yield anywhere and everywhere, bonds are trading in uncharted territory. Please consider Obama Wins Low Yield as Markets Shrink Aiding Deficit

Bond investors seeking top-rated securities face fewer alternatives to Treasuries, allowing President Barack Obama to sell unprecedented sums of debt at ever lower rates to finance a $1.47 trillion deficit.

Shrinking credit markets help explain why some Treasury yields are at record lows even after the amount of marketable government debt outstanding increased by 21 percent from a year earlier to $8.18 trillion. Last week, the U.S. government auctioned $34 billion of three-year notes at a yield of 0.844 percent, the lowest ever for that maturity.

Spending by companies and consumers has slowed as the economy has shown signs of weakening. Companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index have stockpiled a record $2.3 trillion of cash and equivalents. Company borrowing slid 29 percent in the first half of the year to $528 billion amid a dearth of business investment, Bloomberg data shows.

Piles of Cash Equates to Piles of Debt

Companies are piling up cash alright. However, the flip side of that cash is debt.

Moreover, analysts mistake that cash for willingness to expand. The reality is corporations do not want to get trapped like they did in 2008, unable to borrow.

For more on corporate cash levels, please see Are Corporations Sitting on Piles of Cash?

Individuals are also hoarding cash. The U.S. savings rate reached 6.4 percent in June, up from 1.7 percent in August 2007, the start of the financial crisis.

Are Individuals Hoarding Cash?

Individuals are not really "hoarding cash" either. Instead they are paying down debt. Most do not realize that by definition, paying down debt constitutes "saving".

For most wage earners, the savings rate is after-tax salary minus personal consumption expenditures (PCE). For a more precise definition, please see What's Behind The Soaring Savings Rate?

“There’s been a collapse in both consumer and business credit demand,” said James Kochan, the chief fixed-income strategist at Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin-based Wells Fargo Fund Management, which oversees $179 billion. “To see both categories so weak for such an extended period of time, you’d probably have to go back to the Depression.”

Food Stamps and Unemployment Insurance Mask Depression

I believe we are in a depression now. The key difference is food stamps and unemployment checks have replaced bread lines.

We also have hundreds of thousands of people living in their homes without making payments on their mortgage or home equity lines. The slow foreclosure process encourages more to do the same.

“The diminishing supply” of alternatives to Treasuries “is giving Washington an opportunity to continue with its fiscal irresponsibilities,” said Mark MacQueen, partner and portfolio manager at Austin, Texas-based Sage Advisory Services, which oversees $8.5 billion. “The only way to tell Washington and America ‘no more’ is a weak dollar, which eventually leads to higher interest rates.”

“We are slowly playing a fool’s game as rates go further down to unsustainably low levels,” said Dan Shackelford, a money manager who helps oversee $15 billion in fixed-income assets at T. Rowe Price Group Inc. in Baltimore.

Thoughts on the Fool's Game

If you are managing $15 billion thinking it is a "fool's game", then in my opinion you ought not be doing it. It seems to me there is a lack of fiduciary responsibility if one is investing client money in a "fool's game".

What the hell - Anything for a fee!

I do think corporate bonds, especially most junk is playing for the greater fool. In regards to treasuries, there is going to be an exit problem for sure, but that could be years away. In Japan, yields stayed low for a decade. Why can't it happen here?

Yields certainly might stay low for an extended period. Whether or not they do remains to be seen. I happen to like long-term treasuries right now, but certainly not as much as when the 10-year was at 3.75% and bears were foolishly shorting treasuries like mad.

The government isn’t the only one getting a good deal. Armonk, New York-based International Business Machines Corp., the world’s biggest computer services provider, sold $1.5 billion of three-year notes on Aug. 2 with a coupon of 1 percent, the lowest of the more than 3,400 securities in the Barclays Capital U.S. Corporate Index of investment-grade company debt.

Portland, Oregon, sold about $408 million in sewer-system revenue debt on Aug. 11, with utility bond yields at the lowest level on record. Yields on 10-year, AA rated tax-exempts backed by utility revenue stood at 3.02 percent on Aug. 10, according to Bloomberg Fair Market Value data. That’s the lowest since the index was created in November 1993.

“We are in unchartered territory,” said [William Larkin, a fixed-income money manager in Salem, Massachusetts at Cabot Money Management]. “We are pushing and pulling levers that we don’t understand the full implications.”

Uncharted Territory

This is indeed uncharted territory thanks to the Fed pushing and pulling levers in a manner it does not understand. William Black, a former bank regulator, is one person who does understand. Black says U.S. Using "Rally Stupid Strategy" to Hide Bank Losses - Will Produce Japanese Style Lost Decade.

I agree with his assessment.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

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Some Good <b>News</b> | Talking Points Memo

Over the weekend we brought you the news of the apparent arson attack at the construction site of the future Islamic Center of Murfreesboro, in Murfreesboro, Tennessee. The day after the incident, members of the congregation's board ...

TV <b>News</b>, Talk Shows Using Skype

NEW YORK — When he wanted to interview a source in Connecticut for a recent "World News" story on technology, ABC reporter Pierre Thomas didn't even leave the office. ABC's cameras showed him sitting in front of a computer screen, ...

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plan, that is, what exactly do you want to accomplish and how you intend to do so.
4.- And lastly, you must work hard to put everything in place and get everything working as planned.
Now, based on these principles, what is the best way to make money from home?
Well, from my own experience (since I run several businesses from home myself) your best shot is at an online business. Why?
An online business will allow you to work with what you usually have at home: a small space, a computer and an internet connection.
However, as much as people want to tell you that having an online business is the best way to make money from home (something I actually agree with), you must be aware of the fact that building such business is no easy task. Sure it will be a lot easier than most of the traditional business models, among other reasons because you really need little to no money to start and you will be able to beat the learning curve faster, however, as in any business, be prepared to work your way to profits, anything else is just a fantasy.
The hardest part of an online business really is starting and then sticking to it until you make it work, as most people tend to abandon their quest within weeks just because they are not making a lot of money, so you have to make sure you another victim of desperation and impatience.
One of the most exciting ways to earn income is from home and the good news is that as technology advances so do number of opportunities to earn good money from home. Perhaps the best way to make money from home is through some kind of internet based business. It is important to think creatively and come up with new ideas as this will set you and your website apart and give you the competitive edge necessary to succeed online long term.
Blogging:
You are probably familiar with the concept of blogging and there are indeed many who make good money from it. The first key point to remember is that you want to own your blog so it is best to not use free hosted blogging solutions as this will reduce your chances of ranking well in the search engines. More than likely you are an expert at a certain topic and it is important also to make sure there is a demand for the content you will blog about. Use a free keyword tool like the Google keyword tool external to figure out whether the subjects you wish to blog on have a strong market on the internet. Remember that patience is key and it is also a good idea to not rely solely on one approach when it comes to earning money online.
Create interactive sites:
It is important to learn about creating sites that have user interactivity and ideally are even 100% user generated content sites. For instance, an article directory that gets content submitted by thousands of other people. However the key to success is to be unique so this will require a certain level of programming skill either on your part or you will have to hire a skilled programmer. There are many great tutorial sites to help you learn about web development using various technologies like php, MySQL and asp.net. PHP/MySQL is a great place to start as it has been used to create some very powerful and popular sites and it is also free to use. If you are not a programmer by profession then it can seem daunting to learn the necessary technologies however with practice it will get easier.
Create affiliate review sites:
There are tons of products being released each day and sold online. If you can create a site that organizes the products effectively and ranks them accurately then there is good chance you can make good affiliate commissions. Many of these products you review will also

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TV <b>News</b>, Talk Shows Using Skype

NEW YORK — When he wanted to interview a source in Connecticut for a recent "World News" story on technology, ABC reporter Pierre Thomas didn't even leave the office. ABC's cameras showed him sitting in front of a computer screen, ...

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Investors and traders in China's main financial district in Shanghai are talking about the following before the start of trade today: Industrial activity in China improved in August. The purchasing managers index of the China Federation ...

To lose weight fast and safe is the best way. You do not want to go overboard and risk your health but, equally, you do not want to lose weight so slowly that it is barely noticeable. In this article, I'll tell you how much you can lose and also tell you how to do it.
Calorific Deficit
To lose weight, you need to have a calorific deficit. This means that you need to burn more energy than you provide in the form of food.
Many nutritionists recommend that you lose no more than one pound per week. To do this, you need to have a calorific deficit of 500 calories per day.
For example, if you are a man then you burn roughly 2,500 calories per day. To achieve one pound weight loss per week, you need to limit your intake to 2,000 calories per day.
Personally, when I lost over 50 pounds of weight, I did it different. I had a daily calorific deficit of around 1,000 calories. This meant that I lost two pounds of fat per week. I felt fine and I am still alive today!
How To Achieve The Deficit
The choice is yours. You can either eat 500 fewer calories or you can eat the same amount of food but do a daily workout that will burn 500 calories.
It is easier to eat less because 500 calories burned from exercise is quite a punishing workout. Exercise is not needed to lose weight, that is a myth. But it does have benefits like improving your sense of well being.
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fat you may be losing, but all-important muscle tissue as well. This is why exercise and physical activity are just as essential to quick weight loss as eating right, because building muscle helps to burn all those calories away.
There are many other quick weight loss diet plans in existence, precisely because there is no single diet that will work for everyone. Whether low-fat, low-carb, protein-rich, all-vegetarian, or whatnot, it is still up to you to decide which plan you think will suit you best. And remember, when in doubt, always consult your physician first.


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TV <b>News</b>, Talk Shows Using Skype

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How Murdoch&#39;s <b>News</b> Of The World Hacked The Royals&#39; Voice-Mail

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Lujiazui Breakfast: <b>News</b> And Views About China Stocks (Sept. 2 <b>...</b>

Investors and traders in China's main financial district in Shanghai are talking about the following before the start of trade today: Industrial activity in China improved in August. The purchasing managers index of the China Federation ...

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As investors search for yield anywhere and everywhere, bonds are trading in uncharted territory. Please consider Obama Wins Low Yield as Markets Shrink Aiding Deficit

Bond investors seeking top-rated securities face fewer alternatives to Treasuries, allowing President Barack Obama to sell unprecedented sums of debt at ever lower rates to finance a $1.47 trillion deficit.

Shrinking credit markets help explain why some Treasury yields are at record lows even after the amount of marketable government debt outstanding increased by 21 percent from a year earlier to $8.18 trillion. Last week, the U.S. government auctioned $34 billion of three-year notes at a yield of 0.844 percent, the lowest ever for that maturity.

Spending by companies and consumers has slowed as the economy has shown signs of weakening. Companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index have stockpiled a record $2.3 trillion of cash and equivalents. Company borrowing slid 29 percent in the first half of the year to $528 billion amid a dearth of business investment, Bloomberg data shows.

Piles of Cash Equates to Piles of Debt

Companies are piling up cash alright. However, the flip side of that cash is debt.

Moreover, analysts mistake that cash for willingness to expand. The reality is corporations do not want to get trapped like they did in 2008, unable to borrow.

For more on corporate cash levels, please see Are Corporations Sitting on Piles of Cash?

Individuals are also hoarding cash. The U.S. savings rate reached 6.4 percent in June, up from 1.7 percent in August 2007, the start of the financial crisis.

Are Individuals Hoarding Cash?

Individuals are not really "hoarding cash" either. Instead they are paying down debt. Most do not realize that by definition, paying down debt constitutes "saving".

For most wage earners, the savings rate is after-tax salary minus personal consumption expenditures (PCE). For a more precise definition, please see What's Behind The Soaring Savings Rate?

“There’s been a collapse in both consumer and business credit demand,” said James Kochan, the chief fixed-income strategist at Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin-based Wells Fargo Fund Management, which oversees $179 billion. “To see both categories so weak for such an extended period of time, you’d probably have to go back to the Depression.”

Food Stamps and Unemployment Insurance Mask Depression

I believe we are in a depression now. The key difference is food stamps and unemployment checks have replaced bread lines.

We also have hundreds of thousands of people living in their homes without making payments on their mortgage or home equity lines. The slow foreclosure process encourages more to do the same.

“The diminishing supply” of alternatives to Treasuries “is giving Washington an opportunity to continue with its fiscal irresponsibilities,” said Mark MacQueen, partner and portfolio manager at Austin, Texas-based Sage Advisory Services, which oversees $8.5 billion. “The only way to tell Washington and America ‘no more’ is a weak dollar, which eventually leads to higher interest rates.”

“We are slowly playing a fool’s game as rates go further down to unsustainably low levels,” said Dan Shackelford, a money manager who helps oversee $15 billion in fixed-income assets at T. Rowe Price Group Inc. in Baltimore.

Thoughts on the Fool's Game

If you are managing $15 billion thinking it is a "fool's game", then in my opinion you ought not be doing it. It seems to me there is a lack of fiduciary responsibility if one is investing client money in a "fool's game".

What the hell - Anything for a fee!

I do think corporate bonds, especially most junk is playing for the greater fool. In regards to treasuries, there is going to be an exit problem for sure, but that could be years away. In Japan, yields stayed low for a decade. Why can't it happen here?

Yields certainly might stay low for an extended period. Whether or not they do remains to be seen. I happen to like long-term treasuries right now, but certainly not as much as when the 10-year was at 3.75% and bears were foolishly shorting treasuries like mad.

The government isn’t the only one getting a good deal. Armonk, New York-based International Business Machines Corp., the world’s biggest computer services provider, sold $1.5 billion of three-year notes on Aug. 2 with a coupon of 1 percent, the lowest of the more than 3,400 securities in the Barclays Capital U.S. Corporate Index of investment-grade company debt.

Portland, Oregon, sold about $408 million in sewer-system revenue debt on Aug. 11, with utility bond yields at the lowest level on record. Yields on 10-year, AA rated tax-exempts backed by utility revenue stood at 3.02 percent on Aug. 10, according to Bloomberg Fair Market Value data. That’s the lowest since the index was created in November 1993.

“We are in unchartered territory,” said [William Larkin, a fixed-income money manager in Salem, Massachusetts at Cabot Money Management]. “We are pushing and pulling levers that we don’t understand the full implications.”

Uncharted Territory

This is indeed uncharted territory thanks to the Fed pushing and pulling levers in a manner it does not understand. William Black, a former bank regulator, is one person who does understand. Black says U.S. Using "Rally Stupid Strategy" to Hide Bank Losses - Will Produce Japanese Style Lost Decade.

I agree with his assessment.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

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managing your personal finance

As you’ll read tomorrow (or Monday), I’ve entered a new phase in my life. After years of hard work and long hours building this blog (time that I’ve enjoyed), I’ve been shifting things around so that I have more free time. As a result, I’m going to have more time to devote to creating quality blog posts, instead of rushing around at the last minute looking for something to write about.

Because of this, it’s time yet again to take requests. I do this about once a year, and it’s a great way to get a feel for what GRS readers are interested in. I’d be grateful if you’d take the time to leave a comment below with topic suggestions or article requests. It doesn’t matter if we’ve covered the subject in the past. If you’d like me (or one of the other GRS staff) to write about it, let me know.

Have there been too many articles about credit cards? Too few articles about credit cards? Would you like to know more about individual savings accounts? Do you like the articles about the psychology of spending? Would it be helpful to have somebody come in to explain insurance concepts in plain English? Should I try to persuade my wife to share more of her recipes now and then? Let me know what you’d like to read about!

While you’re all providing feedback about the site, here are a few recent articles of note:

Over at The Simple Dollar, Trent and his readers had a thoughtful discussion about the obligations of wealth. “I think there is some inherent distrust of the rich in the mainstream of American society,” Trent writes as he describes how a wealthy person can keep from alienating his friends. There’s so much to say about this topic; I’m tempted to write an entire article about it.

GRS reader Steven writes a blog called Hundred Goals, which is about achieving your goals while managing your finances. After Sierra’s post this morning about travel, he dropped me a line to let me know that he has a recent article about how to have a great vacation.

Speaking of vacation, my pal Jason over at No Credit Needed spent time compiling day-use fees and free days for state parks across the United States. Handy page to bookmark!

And here’s more travel! At The Art of Non-Conformity, my good friend Chris Guillebeau has posted a beginner’s guide to travel hacking. I’ve been asking him to share this info for a long time; now I’ve got to take responsibility to use the knowledge he’s shared.

Finally, I’ve been giving a lot of interviews lately. I’m much more comfortable with these than I used to be. (They used to scare me to death!) Some examples:

• Colleen from The Frisky interviewed me about how to save money even when you’re living paycheck to paycheck. This is a tough quandary, something I’m asked about a lot.




• In an interview with BeFrugal, I discuss frugality, happiness, and conscious spending. (Note: “the ballot” should be “the balance” — I must have mumbled.)




• Jeff Rose at Good Financial Cents also interviewed me. This interview is very much about the process of writing a book, which may or may not interest you.




• I also spoke with Beverly Harzog from Card Ratings. We chatted about credit cards, of course, but also about other aspects of personal finance.




• Finally, USA Weekend has a short piece on how to give your 401(k) a midyear check, for which author Richard Eisenberg interviewed me back in May. This is a perfect example of how much work goes into even a small newspaper article. Eisenberg spent 20-30 minutes on the phone with me, and I’m sure he did the same with the other folks he quotes. Plus, I’ll bet he spent a lot of time writing. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were 4-6 hours in this small piece.

Okay, one last thing before I go. Tim pointed me to a two-year-old New York Times series about the debt trap, which includes an interactive infographic showing average household debt loads over the past century.

That’s enough links for today. Please do leave a comment with topic requests or other feedback. Meanwhile, it’s time for me to go do some yardwork…

deals, Software, VC

Jive Software Nabs $30M in Round From Kleiner Perkins, Sequoia Capital

Thea Chard 7/21/10

Jive Software, the Palo Alto, CA-based software company started in Portland, OR, has received $30 million in Series C financing led by Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers.

This latest shot of cash, part of which comes from Sequoia Capital, means the company has raised more than $57 million in the last three years. Sequoia had been Jive’s sole investor up until this point, providing $12 million back in October, and $15 million in 2007.

“This is the biggest joint investment that Kleiner and Sequoia have done since they partnered up with Google,” says Bryan LeBlanc, Jive’s chief financial officer.

The investors are betting big that Jive has figured out how to harness some key elements of social media for business. Jive provides social-networking, communication, collaboration, and social media monitoring tools to more than 5,000 businesses, a group that ranges from small and mid-size companies to huge global brands. Jive’s customer roster includes Nike, Starbucks, SAP, Cisco Systems, Charles Schwab, and Intel. The company also provides social networking and collaboration software for a number of U.S. government agencies, as well as congressional members and their staffs.

“We’re the largest and fastest-growing company in this new category,” says Christopher Lochhead, Jive’s chief strategy advisor. “It’s about a $5 billion dollar market growing at about 40 percent, and we’re the clear leaders.”

The company’s biggest competitors include Microsoft and IBM. But according to Lochhead, Jive has an advantage—the support of some significant VC dollars, which he says will give Jive the ability to expand its product offerings and hire the best talent Silicon Valley has to offer in “multiple gene pools.”

As part of the deal, Kleiner Perkins managing partner Ted Schlein will be joining the Jive board of directors. The $30 million capital will be used to “accelerate Jive’s rapid growth and further drive the company’s leadership in the social business market,” according to a company statement.

What does that mean for potential clients? That the company will be expanding on its current social business software—the “doppler weather radar” of what’s going on in specific markets as Lochhead puts it. It will also allow Jive to focus on developing four strategic pillars moving forward. First is what Lochhead calls  ”Jive What Matters,” a one-stop command center that encompasses “everything that you need to get your job done,” in terms of monitoring deadlines, status updates, sales numbers, all in one place. Then there’s Jive mobile apps; social widgets, such as YouTube and SalesForce, integrated into the software; and seeking out more strategic partnerships with companies like Google and Twitter.

“What social business software entails is a new way to engage with your employees, customers and the web,” Lochhead says. “Why is it so fun, effective and easy to do all of this stuff in my personal life, and yet work sucks? All of those innovations in the consumer social web, Jive is bringing to the enterprise.” He adds: “It’s a new way to do business that allows people to work together, interact, in a way that just wasn’t possible before.”

LeBlanc, the finance chief, added: “$30 million allows us to have the currency to execute that strategy.”

Though Jive, founded in Portland, OR in 2001, relocated its headquarters to Palo Alto, CA last May, it continues to maintain a growing presence in the Pacific Northwest. The company laid off one-third of its employees—around 40 people, including the vice president of engineering and vice president of sales—after the economic down turn in 2008. But Lochhead says it’s maintained profitability and is growing again, with 270 employees spread throughout the offices in Palo Alto, Portland, OR, and Boulder, CO, as well as two outposts in Europe. In January, the company posted record profits—an 85 percent increase in full-year revenue in 2009 when compared to the previous year.

And although LeBlanc could not give us exact figures on how Jive is doing this year, he did say that the financial support from Kleiner Perkins and Sequoia is a strong indication of the company’s potential.

“We do intend to build a large, relevant software company, and often when you look at large, relevant software companies, they’re $1 billion companies,” LeBlanc said. “Having that capital now—I think it’s a testament that Sequoia has been very bullish about this space…it’s unusual and we feel, frankly, very honored to have two of the titans of Sand Hill Road both behind us.”

Thea Chard is the Assistant Editor for Xconomy Seattle. You can e-mail her at tchard@xconomy.com or follow her on Twitter at http://twitter.com/theachard.

penis extender

As you’ll read tomorrow (or Monday), I’ve entered a new phase in my life. After years of hard work and long hours building this blog (time that I’ve enjoyed), I’ve been shifting things around so that I have more free time. As a result, I’m going to have more time to devote to creating quality blog posts, instead of rushing around at the last minute looking for something to write about.

Because of this, it’s time yet again to take requests. I do this about once a year, and it’s a great way to get a feel for what GRS readers are interested in. I’d be grateful if you’d take the time to leave a comment below with topic suggestions or article requests. It doesn’t matter if we’ve covered the subject in the past. If you’d like me (or one of the other GRS staff) to write about it, let me know.

Have there been too many articles about credit cards? Too few articles about credit cards? Would you like to know more about individual savings accounts? Do you like the articles about the psychology of spending? Would it be helpful to have somebody come in to explain insurance concepts in plain English? Should I try to persuade my wife to share more of her recipes now and then? Let me know what you’d like to read about!

While you’re all providing feedback about the site, here are a few recent articles of note:

Over at The Simple Dollar, Trent and his readers had a thoughtful discussion about the obligations of wealth. “I think there is some inherent distrust of the rich in the mainstream of American society,” Trent writes as he describes how a wealthy person can keep from alienating his friends. There’s so much to say about this topic; I’m tempted to write an entire article about it.

GRS reader Steven writes a blog called Hundred Goals, which is about achieving your goals while managing your finances. After Sierra’s post this morning about travel, he dropped me a line to let me know that he has a recent article about how to have a great vacation.

Speaking of vacation, my pal Jason over at No Credit Needed spent time compiling day-use fees and free days for state parks across the United States. Handy page to bookmark!

And here’s more travel! At The Art of Non-Conformity, my good friend Chris Guillebeau has posted a beginner’s guide to travel hacking. I’ve been asking him to share this info for a long time; now I’ve got to take responsibility to use the knowledge he’s shared.

Finally, I’ve been giving a lot of interviews lately. I’m much more comfortable with these than I used to be. (They used to scare me to death!) Some examples:

• Colleen from The Frisky interviewed me about how to save money even when you’re living paycheck to paycheck. This is a tough quandary, something I’m asked about a lot.




• In an interview with BeFrugal, I discuss frugality, happiness, and conscious spending. (Note: “the ballot” should be “the balance” — I must have mumbled.)




• Jeff Rose at Good Financial Cents also interviewed me. This interview is very much about the process of writing a book, which may or may not interest you.




• I also spoke with Beverly Harzog from Card Ratings. We chatted about credit cards, of course, but also about other aspects of personal finance.




• Finally, USA Weekend has a short piece on how to give your 401(k) a midyear check, for which author Richard Eisenberg interviewed me back in May. This is a perfect example of how much work goes into even a small newspaper article. Eisenberg spent 20-30 minutes on the phone with me, and I’m sure he did the same with the other folks he quotes. Plus, I’ll bet he spent a lot of time writing. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were 4-6 hours in this small piece.

Okay, one last thing before I go. Tim pointed me to a two-year-old New York Times series about the debt trap, which includes an interactive infographic showing average household debt loads over the past century.

That’s enough links for today. Please do leave a comment with topic requests or other feedback. Meanwhile, it’s time for me to go do some yardwork…

deals, Software, VC

Jive Software Nabs $30M in Round From Kleiner Perkins, Sequoia Capital

Thea Chard 7/21/10

Jive Software, the Palo Alto, CA-based software company started in Portland, OR, has received $30 million in Series C financing led by Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers.

This latest shot of cash, part of which comes from Sequoia Capital, means the company has raised more than $57 million in the last three years. Sequoia had been Jive’s sole investor up until this point, providing $12 million back in October, and $15 million in 2007.

“This is the biggest joint investment that Kleiner and Sequoia have done since they partnered up with Google,” says Bryan LeBlanc, Jive’s chief financial officer.

The investors are betting big that Jive has figured out how to harness some key elements of social media for business. Jive provides social-networking, communication, collaboration, and social media monitoring tools to more than 5,000 businesses, a group that ranges from small and mid-size companies to huge global brands. Jive’s customer roster includes Nike, Starbucks, SAP, Cisco Systems, Charles Schwab, and Intel. The company also provides social networking and collaboration software for a number of U.S. government agencies, as well as congressional members and their staffs.

“We’re the largest and fastest-growing company in this new category,” says Christopher Lochhead, Jive’s chief strategy advisor. “It’s about a $5 billion dollar market growing at about 40 percent, and we’re the clear leaders.”

The company’s biggest competitors include Microsoft and IBM. But according to Lochhead, Jive has an advantage—the support of some significant VC dollars, which he says will give Jive the ability to expand its product offerings and hire the best talent Silicon Valley has to offer in “multiple gene pools.”

As part of the deal, Kleiner Perkins managing partner Ted Schlein will be joining the Jive board of directors. The $30 million capital will be used to “accelerate Jive’s rapid growth and further drive the company’s leadership in the social business market,” according to a company statement.

What does that mean for potential clients? That the company will be expanding on its current social business software—the “doppler weather radar” of what’s going on in specific markets as Lochhead puts it. It will also allow Jive to focus on developing four strategic pillars moving forward. First is what Lochhead calls  ”Jive What Matters,” a one-stop command center that encompasses “everything that you need to get your job done,” in terms of monitoring deadlines, status updates, sales numbers, all in one place. Then there’s Jive mobile apps; social widgets, such as YouTube and SalesForce, integrated into the software; and seeking out more strategic partnerships with companies like Google and Twitter.

“What social business software entails is a new way to engage with your employees, customers and the web,” Lochhead says. “Why is it so fun, effective and easy to do all of this stuff in my personal life, and yet work sucks? All of those innovations in the consumer social web, Jive is bringing to the enterprise.” He adds: “It’s a new way to do business that allows people to work together, interact, in a way that just wasn’t possible before.”

LeBlanc, the finance chief, added: “$30 million allows us to have the currency to execute that strategy.”

Though Jive, founded in Portland, OR in 2001, relocated its headquarters to Palo Alto, CA last May, it continues to maintain a growing presence in the Pacific Northwest. The company laid off one-third of its employees—around 40 people, including the vice president of engineering and vice president of sales—after the economic down turn in 2008. But Lochhead says it’s maintained profitability and is growing again, with 270 employees spread throughout the offices in Palo Alto, Portland, OR, and Boulder, CO, as well as two outposts in Europe. In January, the company posted record profits—an 85 percent increase in full-year revenue in 2009 when compared to the previous year.

And although LeBlanc could not give us exact figures on how Jive is doing this year, he did say that the financial support from Kleiner Perkins and Sequoia is a strong indication of the company’s potential.

“We do intend to build a large, relevant software company, and often when you look at large, relevant software companies, they’re $1 billion companies,” LeBlanc said. “Having that capital now—I think it’s a testament that Sequoia has been very bullish about this space…it’s unusual and we feel, frankly, very honored to have two of the titans of Sand Hill Road both behind us.”

Thea Chard is the Assistant Editor for Xconomy Seattle. You can e-mail her at tchard@xconomy.com or follow her on Twitter at http://twitter.com/theachard.

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personal finance planning

Personal finance site for women LearnVest has had a big year. Launched last fall at TechCrunch50, the startup raised its first round of funding from Accel Partners and seed investors a few months ago ($4.5 million to be exact).

LearnVest has a simple goal: to help women organize their finances and learn how to become financially savvy. It’s kind of like an online version of financial planner Suze Orman blended with personal finance site Mint.com.

Today, the startup is launching three online programs, called ‘bootcamps,’ to educate women on various financial subjects, including a Financial Basics Bootcamp, Cut Your Costs Bootcamp, and Investing Bootcamp. Instead of creating a book-like online experience, LearnVest is making email newsletters the foundation of the educational sessions.

For example, the Investing Bootcamp, which costs users $7.99, teaches women how to make smart investing decisions and properly allocate their portfolios. For three weeks, women will receive daily emails with advice and actionable items that they can perform on LearnVest, making the newsletter interactive. For example, for the Financial Basics bootcamp, one of the daily actionable items is ‘Get Your Credit Score.’ Cut Your Costs Bootcamp topic range from Bootcamp topics range from ways to save on energy bills to exactly how to negotiate a lower cable bill. Learnvest will incorporate all of the information users complete and input in bootcamps into their LearnVest account.

Alexa von Tobel, LearnVest’s CEO and founder, tells me that the idea is to encourage women to not only learn, but also motivate them to make actionable decisions about their accounts and finances at the same time. She chose a newsletter format because the ‘LearnVest woman’ simply doesn’t have time to read the same information in a book. Women are more inclined to read a daily tidbit in an email vs. sitting down with a book, says von Tobel.

LearnVest held a pilot bootcamp in January and saw impressive results—8,000 people signed up for the basic financial bootcamp. With the new additions LearnVest expects to sign up a total of 40,000 participants. LearnVest plans to launch additional bootcamps in the future, including sessions realted to how to get a mortgage for a home.

The integration between the bootcamp educational sessions and the user’s LearnVest profile is key to the success of the initiative. As we wrote in our initial review of LearnVest, the site will ask you a series of questions about your financial health (i.e. how much credit card debt do you have), you life stages (i.e. do you rent, are you planning a family soon, do you own a house) and your financial education level and will diagnose your financial health and give you a snapshot of what you need to learn and improve. LearnVest will create customized plans for you, depending on your goals, and allow you to chart off your improvements and achievements.

Von Tobel says that LearnVest is steadily adding more female users flock to its site and is currently seeing 500K uniques per month. The next step is to take the site mobile, says von Tobel, and help women access LearnVest on the go.

photo: elycefeliz 

Do you want to become rich beyond your wildest dreams? The question may seem right out of a late-night infomercial — unless you follow one strategy that may actually help you achieve it: Act poor.

If you do this, you’ll be fast on your way to having a million dollars — or more. That money can buy you a lot of stuff, of course, which would allow you to act rich and show off in no time. But if you’re smart, you’ll use it to buy freedom and give yourself options that the rest of your graduating class won’t have because they just weren’t as smart coming out of the box.

What do I mean by “act poor?” Pretty much act like you have for the past four years. Maybe even live with Mom and Dad for a year or so, promising that you’ll tell them when you’re coming home at night and help with the dishes. (As a parent, I had to say that.) The point of keeping your expenses low is to save your socks off.

Your friends probably won’t be doing this. The moment they get jobs, they’re going to want a better car; fewer roommates; dinners on the town. And that’s ever so tempting to do since you’ve likely suffered through lean years as a college student. And that new job you’re getting could allow you to pay for some luxuries, even if it doesn’t pay a lot.

But there’s a great pay off to living like a college student. If you manage to save really prodigiously for just a couple of years, you can build an emergency fund that will tide you over when times are really bad. And you can get started on long-term stock market investing at the best possible time.

How could I possibly say that this is the best possible time to be investing in the stock market, when stocks have gone nowhere for a full decade? I’m a student of the market, the author of Investing 101 and can say with some authority that the market’s miserable decade-long performance is exactly what spells huge opportunity for you.

A company called Ibbotson Associates has been compiling data on investments for decades. Let me throw a few of their statistics at you so you can understand why I’m so bullish — and particularly bullish for those of you who get to start investing now.

Average stock market returns from 1926 to the present work out to 9.6% for big company stocks and 11.67% for small company stocks. But stocks rarely hit that average in any given year. Instead, prices dive and soar, scaring out the faint of heart — and those who don’t understand why they’re investing. These price swings are often lasting, which is why you never invest short-term money in stocks. Put the rent money in the stock market, and a normal market swing might just send you back to living with Mom and Dad. But over the long run, those downswings are matched by equally rewarding upswings.

Consider: During the decade of the 1920s, big company stocks returned an average of 19.2%, according to Ibbotson — way above the long-term average. But the next decade was miserable, with returns on big company stocks dropping 0.1% over the 10 year period. In other words, if you invested $10,000, at the end of that decade, you would have a little less than $10,000 and probably feel demoralized. What happened then? In the 1940s, market returns were pretty manic — alternating between big losses and huge gains. The average return, however, ended at 9.2%. Still, because of the really rotten returns in the 1930s, investors could expect a “catch-up” decade and they got it. During the 1950s, average stock returns rose 19.4%.

Stock gains were below average in the 1960s and 70s —  up 7.8% and 5.9% respectively; then way above average in the 1980s and 1990s — up 17.8% and 18.2% respectively. Are you detecting a pattern?

Okay, so the relevant decade for you was the one just completed, when stock prices fell 1% on average, according to Ibbotson. That’s the worst decade in history, which is a really good sign when you’re starting now.

It’s not clear whether your “catch up” returns will hit this year, next year or some time in the future, but the chances are great that you’ll get a stretch of above-average returns. What does that mean in dollars and cents?

For the updated version of Investing 101, I did an analysis of what would happen to somebody who put $1,000 a month into the stock market starting in January of 1970 — the last really miserable decade for stocks– and stuck with it for 30 years. The first decade was rotten (5.9% returns), but the next two decades were awesome.

At the end of 30 years, this investor had $4.03 million. If he earned just the average return over that time– or earned his returns in a different order — he would have had $1 million less — $3.08 million to be precise. Why? He had the least at stake when returns were rotten and a lot of money to compound when times got good.

I know $1,000 a month is an insane amount and feels really crazy to you now. You don’t have to save that much to get a big reward; you just have to start saving as much as you can.

But if you get a job where your employer offers a 401(k) plan, it’s not as hard as you might think to save even that stunning $1,000 a month. That’s because your contributions come out before tax, which reduces your out-of-pocket cost because it also cuts your tax withholding, and most employers match your contributions — some even at 100% on the dollar.

In other words, you contribute $500 and your employer contributes $500. And because your contribution comes out before tax, your paycheck is reduced by just $400 (assuming you pay 20% of your income in state and federal tax).

Think you can’t save that much — or even at all? Try tracking all of your expenses, suggests Danny Kofke, a special education teacher and author of How to Survive (and Perhaps Thrive) on a Teacher’s Salary.

Little things like going to lunch each day, instead of packing a sandwich, are likely to cost you about $5 bucks a day, $25 a week and $1,300 a year. The soda that you buy from a vending machine is likely $1 more than the one you bought at the store. And, of course, if you put off buying that new car and drive your junker (or take the Metro or bus), you’re likely to save $150 to $300 each month on car payments, too.

“Times are tough to get a job, but if you can start off without immediately getting used to spending how much you’re making, you can get way ahead,” Kofke said.

This is the formula that Thomas Stanley explains in The Millionaire Next Door and is, in fact, the most reliable way to get rich. If you play your cards right, you could be the youngest millionaire on your block.

Kathy Kristof is a syndicated personal finance columnist, speaker and author of three books, including the recently updated Investing 101 (Bloomberg, 2008).

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